The desk expects the FOMC to hold at 3.75%-4.00% on Oct. 28, with a tightening bias and a December hike as the base case.

Data as of the close on Friday, Oct. 23, 2026, unless noted.

Consensus. In a Reuters poll taken Oct. 16-20, 94 of 100 economists expected a hold and all 100 expected a December hike. As of Oct. 24, Kalshi priced a hold at about 93%. Impact: a hold is priced; the market reaction depends on the statement and the vote.

Meeting. The FOMC (the Fed's rate-setting committee) meets Oct. 27-28; the decision is at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday. No new projections until the Dec. 8-9 meeting. The September hike to 3.75%-4.00% was unanimous. Impact: guidance comes only from the statement and press conference.

Financial conditions. Several senior officials have signaled they want more data, partly because conditions have tightened since September. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.99% on Oct. 23, versus a 52-week high of 5.31% on Oct. 5. Impact: tighter conditions support waiting until December.

Dissents. Hammack (Cleveland), Logan (Dallas) and Kashkari (Minneapolis) voted for a hike in July. Impact: two or three hawkish dissents, or statement language stressing a prompt return to target, would raise December odds.

Growth and inflation. The Atlanta Fed nowcast points to about 3.5% annualized Q3 growth, and inflation has surprised higher, led by energy. Impact: supports a December hike.

Labor. September payrolls grew 29,000; housing is under strain. Impact: the main argument against hiking. As of Oct. 24, Kalshi priced a December hike at about 75%.

Catalysts.

• Oct. 29, 8:30 a.m. ET: Q3 GDP (advance) and September core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge (BEA); released the day after the vote.
• Nov. 6: October jobs report (BLS). Nov. 10: October CPI (BLS).
• Oil: Brent settled at $116.72 on Oct. 23; the Fed looks through energy unless it reaches core prices and expectations.
• Inflation expectations: higher survey and market measures strengthen the December case.

What would change the view.

• Surprise hike Oct. 28, or more than three dissents: faster path.
• Soft core PCE, weak October payrolls, or a sharp oil drop before Nov. 10 CPI: December becomes a closer call.
• Disorderly rise in long-term yields or credit stress: Fed waits.