Fed, Treasuries
Prediction-market Fed odds by meeting, Treasury yields across the curve, and US government debt supply against competing AI-related corporate issuance.
The Fed funds target range is 3.75%-4.00%, prediction markets price a hold on Oct. 28 and a December hike, and the 10-year Treasury yield is 5.00%.
Market data as of the Oct. 23 close; prediction-market odds as of Oct. 24.
Fed watching
Meetings. The Fed's calendar lists Oct. 27-28, Dec. 8-9 (with projections), Jan. 26-27 and Mar. 16-17, 2027.
Odds by meeting (Oct. 24).
- Oct. 28: hold about 93% on Kalshi and 94.5% on Polymarket.
- Dec. 9: hike about 79% on both Kalshi and Polymarket.
- Jan. 27: quarter-point hike about 31% on Kalshi.
- Mar. 17: quarter-point hike about 59% on Kalshi, in a thinly traded market.
Consensus. In a Reuters poll taken Oct. 16-20, 94 of 100 economists expected a hold and all 100 expected a December hike. Hammack, Logan and Kashkari voted for a hike in July.
US yield curve
Levels (Oct. 23, Treasury par yields). 2Y 4.69%, 5Y 4.82%, 10Y 5.00%, 30Y 5.33%. The 2s10s spread (10Y minus 2Y) is +31bp, versus +46bp on Oct. 1. The 10Y is down 31bp from its 5.31% peak on Oct. 5, the 30Y down 33bp and the 2Y down 15bp. Mohamed El-Erian called Oct. 22 "a classic safe-haven day," with tech jitters driving a flight to quality.
Debt-supply concern
Treasury auctions. October results from TreasuryDirect: 10Y (Oct. 7) 5.300%, bid-to-cover 2.77; 30Y (Oct. 8) 5.618%, 2.54; 20Y (Oct. 21) 5.469%, 2.73. The 20Y tailed 0.9bp, with indirect bidders at 58.2% versus a 65.2% six-auction average (Newsquawk).
Issuance and foreign demand. Treasury said in August it expects coupon auction sizes unchanged for at least the next several quarters. TIC data (Oct. 16) show private foreign net purchases of Treasury notes and bonds of $90.9bn in August.
Competing high-grade supply. AFP reported Oct. 6 that tech-sector borrowing reached about $500bn in 2026's first nine months, and that even Meta has paid more than 7%. Siebert Financial CIO Mark Malek told AFP an investor who might buy a Treasury "might decide to buy Microsoft" instead, pushing up federal borrowing rates. El-Erian shared an FT report Oct. 20 that CDS costs on many AI-linked companies hit record highs.