Brent settled at $116.72 a barrel on Oct. 23, and NYMEX diesel futures settled at $4.98 a gallon.

Data as of the close on Friday, Oct. 23, 2026, unless noted.

Iran and crude oil

Price. Brent's close was the highest since April 29, up about 6% on the week. WTI settled at $103.27.

Risk premium. ING said on Oct. 23 its forecast of an $80 Q4 Brent average now looks unattainable, and that even without re-escalation the possibility of it is likely to keep "a sizeable geopolitical risk premium" in prices.

Hormuz. Attacks on commercial shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz in October are the highest for any month in the Washington Institute for Near East Policy's tracker, even as flows through the strait have increased.

Saudi Arabia and Iran. Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia include a drone attack aimed at the Shaybah field (CNBC). Tehran has threatened Gulf oil facilities if a new US-Israeli offensive starts (Guardian). Treasury said in April that China buys about 90% of Iran's oil exports.

US response. President Trump said on Oct. 21 that the US was not negotiating with Iran, and US officials told The New York Times that plans exist for fresh strikes after the midterm elections (CNBC).

Ukraine, Russia and diesel

Exports. Kpler data show Russian diesel exports fell to 141,000 barrels a day in September from 608,000 a year earlier after Ukrainian strikes on refineries (CNBC).

Strikes on Russian fuel. Ukraine resumed refinery strikes after an energy ceasefire Trump declared on Oct. 11, and more than 1,000 Ukrainian drones targeted Russia on Oct. 18, setting an export terminal in St. Petersburg on fire, CNBC reported, citing Russian state media.

Russian export rules. Russia's broad fuel export ban runs through Jan. 31, 2027, and a ban on diesel exports by direct producers was extended through Oct. 31 (TASS). On Oct. 10 the Russian government said a decision under the Putin-Trump agreement allows 500,000 tonnes of diesel for export.

Sanctions. OFAC issued General License 135 on Oct. 9, authorizing transactions in Russian-origin diesel. The EU Council on Oct. 12 adopted its largest-ever set of listings, 1,569 individuals and entities in Russia's military-industrial complex.

Prices. US on-highway diesel averaged $6.276 a gallon in the week of Oct. 19 (EIA). NYMEX ULSD futures settled at $4.984 on Oct. 23, a diesel crack over Brent of $92.61 a barrel, and distillate stocks were 9% below the five-year average for the week of Oct. 16 (World Oil Monitor). E.J. Antoni wrote Oct. 23 that October consumer sentiment was weighed down by high energy prices from the Iran war "and now Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure."

What to watch

• Oct. 28 and Nov. 4, 10:30 a.m. ET; Nov. 12, noon ET: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (EIA schedule).
• Oct. 31: scheduled end of Russia's direct-producer diesel export ban (TASS).
• Nov. 1: monthly meeting of the seven OPEC+ countries with voluntary cuts (OPEC).
• Nov. 3: US midterm elections, the timing US officials tied to possible new strikes (CNBC).
• Nov. 13: IEA Oil Market Report (IEA).