Midterm Election Predictions & Polls

Markets and raters favor a Democratic House and lean toward a Democratic Senate; a Blue Wave is the most likely outcome, with Gridlock second.

View: Democrats are likely to win the House and favored to win the Senate; a Democratic sweep is the base case.

Key: "47D, 46R, 7" = seats at least leaning D, at least leaning R, toss-ups.

Source	Senate	House
Polymarket; 10/24	68%D	92%D
Kalshi; 10/24	66%D	91%D
Cook; 10/20	47D, 46R, 7	–
Cook; 10/23	–	220D, 198R, 17
Sabato; 10/14	49D, 46R, 5	–
Sabato; 10/20	–	223D, 200R, 12
Inside Elections; 10/15	+3–5D	+10–20D
Generic ballot, Silver Bulletin; 10/23	–	+9.1%D
Generic ballot, RCP; 10/22	–	+8.1%D
Generic ballot, DDHQ; 10/22	–	+7.9%D

Kalshi and Polymarket balance-of-power odds, 10/24 (PredictionScout).

Policy: Democratic bills meet a veto; funding fights and oversight drive change.
Do well: hospitals and Medicaid-focused managed care, water and environmental services, renewable-exposed utilities (CNBC, 10/5); consumer staples and alternative energy (Morningstar, 10/8). Financials and industrials face pressure (Morningstar, 10/8).

Policy: little new law; health, defense and tech policy hold steady.
Do well: healthcare franchise, defense, civil infrastructure, large-cap tech (CNBC, 10/5). Energy independence: desk view.

Policy: reconciliation stays available; deregulation and faster permitting.
Do well: AI and data-center buildout, traditional energy and nuclear, financials, defense and cybersecurity (CNBC, 10/5); banks, industrials, managed care, data-center REITs (Morningstar, 10/8). Immediate expensing, advanced manufacturing and strategic materials: desk view.