The desk treats a merger as possible but unconfirmed. Any deal depends on terms from two independent committees and on a Tesla vote of 50% of all shares.

Committees formed, no terms. On October 20, during SpaceX's Q3 earnings call, Elon Musk said each board had formed a special committee of independent directors to review a combination. No terms have been agreed (TechCrunch). He said a Tesla vote would need 50% of all outstanding shares, not just the shares that vote (The Verge). SpaceX's IPO prospectus put Musk at about 82.4% of SpaceX voting power after the offering (SpaceX 424B4, SEC). Impact: SpaceX shareholder approval is within Musk's control, so Tesla's vote is the binding constraint.

SpaceX as a neocloud. A neocloud is a company that rents out AI computing capacity. SpaceX reported Q3 revenue of $14.6 billion, up 161% year over year. Its Super Intelligence (AI) segment contributed $7.56 billion, about 52% of the total. SpaceX said its nameplate compute capacity reached 1.7 GW as of September 30. It attributed $6.7 billion of year-over-year AI revenue growth partly to cloud services agreements. Of $19.6 billion in capex, $16.4 billion went to AI (SpaceX Q3 release, SEC). Impact: about half of SpaceX's revenue and most of its capex now sit in AI compute.

Tesla quarter (autonomy). Tesla reported Q3 revenue of $28.0 billion, GAAP net income of $787 million and 486,532 deliveries. It began Cybercab robotaxi rides in Austin on September 3, and FSD (Supervised) is approved in nine European countries (Tesla Q3 2026 Update). Tesla says Cybercab will expand to Dallas in November (CNBC). Tesla is aiming for EU-wide FSD approval by Q1 2027 (Tesla Q3 call transcript). Impact: both test whether autonomy scales beyond Austin.

Terafab. For the joint Tesla–SpaceX chip project (TechCrunch), Tesla is aiming for a first test chip around May–June 2027 and volume production in Q3 2028 (Tesla Q3 call transcript).

Starship. In Q3, SpaceX's first revenue-generating Starship mission delivered 26 Starlink V3 satellites. SpaceX says that adds about 10x the downlink capacity of a Falcon 9 Starlink launch (SpaceX Q3 release, SEC). SpaceX is targeting November for Flight 15, its first attempt to catch both stages, and expects the FAA license to include a return to the launch site (Ars Technica). Impact: Starship is now adding Starlink capacity, and Flight 15 tests whether the rocket can be reused.

Starlink subscribers. Consumer subscribers reached 13.6 million, up from 12.0 million in Q2. Monthly revenue per user was $69, versus $83 a year earlier (SpaceX Q3 release, SEC). Net adds of 1.6 million trailed the 2.3 million analysts expected (Light Reading).

What would change the view

More cautious:

• Committees end talks or propose one-sided terms
• Signs the Tesla vote cannot reach 50% of all shares
• Flight 15 fails
• Starlink net adds keep missing estimates
• Terafab misses the 2027 test-chip milestone

More constructive:

• Signed terms from both committees
• Successful Flight 15 double catch
• Cybercab running in Dallas